A hallmark of Manchester City’s title winning seasons in 2011-12 and 2013-14 was their dominant form at The Etihad.
The points return from their home fixtures was the platform upon
which the title was secured, and something that even allowed a less than
stellar away return in both seasons.
How strong were they at home? In 2011-12 they dropped just two points
and last season only five points were lost. Yet fast forward to this
season and it is apparant as to why they sit seven points adrift of
Chelsea and have no more than a slim hope of retaining their title as we
head to the final third.
In 2014-15 City have dropped 12 points at The Etihad through 12
games, replicating their disastrous defence under Roberto Mancini in
2012-13 – with some seven games still remaining. Their return in
comparison to the corresponding fixtures last year shows City are nine
points worse off so far.
City are conceding an average of a goal per game at home, up on
previous seasons, but the real issue lies at the other end of the pitch.
51 goals in 25 games in total is a fair record, yet 30 of these have
come away from home with just 21 scored at The Etihad.
Dig deeper still and you will see that of these 21 goals just seven
have been scored in the opening half; 14 coming after the break – and
further still, 11 of these 14 have come in the final 30 minutes.
In their 12 home games City’s half-time record is W4 D6 L2, averaging
1.5 points per game on that basis. On five occasions City has gone in
0-0 at the break and two further times they have actually trailed 1-0.
If you fail to score before the break in two-thirds of games it is
little wonder that you struggle to put any sort of consistent run
together. Eight of the 12 goals conceded as well have been either
equalisers or goals to give the opposition the lead.
City’s title winning seasons were synonomous with blowing teams away
early, establishing dominant half-time positions that were not
surrendered. Rare was it that a goal conceded had any real impact on the
pattern of the game, merely consolation efforts. This season though,
they are goals that are putting City in a bind and forcing them to chase
a game.
It is astonishing too to see that City have spent an average of 44.3
minutes drawing and 14.8 minutes trailing at home, meaning they have led
for only a third of the game. Contrast this with Chelsea who trail for
an average of just 2.8 minutes per game.
The reality is that City will need to win virtually all of their
remaining games to stand a chance of overhauling Chelsea over the
remainder of the season. Even then, it may not be enough.
A big concern heading into the season was City’s away form, but the
numbers show they currently possess the best away record in the Premier
League. Instead, the surprise has been their lesser return from their
home fixtures.
If City are to stand any chance of fighting their way back in to the
title race then they need to eradicate their propensity to begin home
games in such a slow fashion. If they can’t their chances will fast move
from slim to none.
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